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World Tour Finals, Day 1 - Todd Martin Predicts Federer, Murray

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Sunday’s opening day of play pits Andy Murray against the man who replaced him this week as World No. 4, Robin Soderling. At night, four-time champion Roger Federer meets gritty Spaniard David Ferrer in a replay of the 2007 final.

Andy Murray vs. Robin Soderling

Online Betting Mathematical Loophole1. Cat & Mouse: This is the quintessential matchup of a hitter versus a counterpuncher. Soderling will take a swing at everything knowing full well he can’t out maneuver Murray, who sees and feels the game as well as anyone. Once a rally begins, Murray will want to change pace and height of the ball frequently to keep Soderling, the only man alive who might be able to beat a ball machine, uncomfortable.

2. Hit Him Hard, Hit Him Early: About 40-45% of Murray’s service points will be played off his second serve. What will dictate the course of the match is how Murray mixes up (pace and location) his below-average second serve and how Soderling attempts to attack the second return. Soderling will be well served to be very aggressive with the second return as it is the one time during the point that Murray is not positioned in an ideal place from where to defend.

3. The Volleys: Can Soderling volley well enough to win? Soderling will need to be patiently aggressive to earn opportunities to throw knock-out punches that do not expose his side of the court. As well as Murray defends, however, Soderling is going to have to rely occasionally on his volley to finish points. This is a HUGE challenge for the big hitter, but having to throw 78 foot haymakers against one of the three best defenders in the world might prove to be his demise.

Prediction: Murray is due…a close two-set win is in the cards.

Roger Federer vs. David Ferrer

1. The Fighter: Ferrer can fight like few others. Being down 10-0 lifetime against Federer makes me question whether it is anything close to a fair fight. Federer knows this match has to be won in order to advance into the semi-finals as he has two much more difficult matchups within Group B against Murray and Soderling.

2. Too Flat For A Spaniard? Ferrer exudes so many of the core fundamentals we have all come to expect out of Spaniards. Unfortunately, the one non-Spanish aspect of his game is his relatively flat backhand ground stroke. Ferrer’s standard backhand delivers the ball directly into the Federer backhand strikezone. Ferrer is one of two players in London who doesn’t have an advantage in the crosscourt matchup against Federer’s backhand. Ferrer will have to have his running shoes on and also be willing to use his backhand down the line cleverly in order to have a chance.

3. No Rest For The Weary: Federer has played 73 matches this year. All while traveling with young twin daughters. Couple that with the demands on the 16 major titles winner and fatigue might be rearing its head. Fed will have to stay ultra-focused against Ferrer, who has played him more closely of late. Ferrer is a bulldog of a competitor and will seize any opportunity afforded. If Fed comes ready to play, Ferrer will need to bring his rosary beads.

Prediction: Federer in straight with the potential of one close set.

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